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Earn $198 on average with 99.9% Confidence

Casino on Net

We've done a detailed statistical analysis of the blackjack game and bonus structure at one particular on-line casino, Casino-on-Net (please use this link... we get a referral bonus, which helps us pay our authors and keep Blackack Insider running). The summary is this: you have over a 99.9% probability of positive earnings, with an average of $198, by following our method below.

How can it be?!

It's for real. Honest. Read on to see our statistical analysis and proof.

On-line casinos continue to offer huge bonuses to new players who sign up. The reality for them is that despite the initial loss for the bonus, they more than make it up from the average player who plays a lot, and loses a lot. As long as the house has an edge, hooked gamblers who don't stop when they are ahead will eventually lose money.

But you can prevent that, if you're careful. By playing a modest amount of Blackjack using the exact method we prove works below, you can come ahead over 99% of the time. It's not complicated... it's about playing the minimum amount of blackjack using the safest method such that they'll let you walk away with what's left of the bonus.

How online casinos work

Before we provide the analysis, it's important to understand how Blackjack at online casinos works.

The game of Blackjack online

First, almost all online casinos reshuffle the cards after every round. This prevents card counting completely, and guarantees that the casino has a statistical edge against even the perfect basic strategy player. There are no 'tricks' to beating online casinos. If you're not in it to capitalize on their bonus, you can't play for profit.

Depending on the rules the online casino is using, the house edge can be anywhere from 1% to 0.2%... quite slim! But few actual players follow perfect basic strategy, so their losses per wager are usually around 2% to 2.5% in blackjack.

Typically, online blackjack games use 2 to 6 decks, limit the number of splits to one or two, and generally have favorable remaining rules (no double restrictions, DAS, S17 or H17).

Is it a fair game?

A common question is whether the games are fair. Since the game is online, they could easily stack the decks or cheat, and increase their advantage.

First off, online casinos can make a lot of money without cheating. Just like land casinos, they have an edge in most games, and tend to make much more since the average player rarely follows ideal strategy. The reality is that most online casinos are very successful fiscally, so cheating is not required to make a profit.

It is true that some on-line casinos have been caught cheating: Casino-On-Net is not one of them! An honest casino proves this by having their site audited regularly by a reputable accounting firm. As with most things, stick with the 'big boys' that have been around the longest, and you're less likely to be dealing with sharks. Casino-on-Net is well known in the industry as the biggest and most trusted online casino. Check out various online casino review portals for current reviews, such as casinos-now.com, or casinodreams.net.

Depositing money

First, you have to create an account. Most will take limited credit cards, but you can always mail in a cheque if you have to. This is the scariest part of playing online casinos... handing over real money to some unknown company in some far off place. Typically, online casinos set up shop in a tax haven such as Antigua or the Barbados.

So you ask, "Is my money safe? Will they pay up?". Well, this depends where you play. Some online casinos are better than others. Some have gone out of business without paying up all their customers. Others get grumpy when they see players clearly trying to run away with their bonuses. But the reputable online casinos have clear bonus policies, and will pay you no-questions-asked if you abide by their rules.

Since you have to deposit real money to get the bonus, picking a reputable online casino is critical. We've picked one casino, tested it ourselves, compared it to others, and checked with online blackjack forums. The good news is that they also happen to have the biggest sign up bonus... $200.

How signup bonuses work

Typically, the online casino adds a bonus amount to your account with the first deposit. The bonus amount is yours to keep once you have wagered a minimum amount, usually 2 to 5 times the bonus value.

Cashing out

It's essential to read the online casino's cash out policies very carefully. The best online casinos will deposit up to your initial deposit amount right back to the source (i.e. credit card), within a two to five days of the request.

Anything beyond the initial deposit (i.e. profit) can take up to a month to be processed, and is usually sent to you by cheque in the mail. It's in this situation that the casino will check to make sure you've wagered a minimum factor of the bonus amount before sending you your money.

How to do it

We've researched, tested and picked one online casino... Casino-on-net. Our reasons are:

  • Biggest sign-up bonus: They offer a 20% sign-up bonus, up to $200. I deposited $1000, and they immediately added $200 to my account. That simple.

  • Most trusted online casino: Casino On Net is one of the oldest and best known on-line casinos. Their game earnings are publicly audited monthly by Price Waterhouse Coopers. The data is available on their web site and shows that they consistently pay out over 98% in Blackjack games. This compares favorably with Vegas casinos, and shows that their games are fair. Casino On Net. has been around since 1996, serving over 3,000,000 users.

  • Great blackjack rules: Their rules are DAS (double after splits), S17 (dealer stand on soft 17), aces can be resplit, up to one split per hand, hit split aces (this last rule is a rare bonus). With these rules, a basic strategy player reduces the house edge to -0.21% (i.e. they are earning on average 1/5 of one percent from every wager).

  • Good references: I used the method described here, and they paid up! My initial deposit was refunded back to my credit card within five days, and the remaining profit (from the bonus and play) was sent by cheque within one month. I've checked with other online blackjack forums, and I found no complaints about them.

Here are the steps to using our method:

  1. Create an account: start by clicking on this link to create a new account at Casino-on-Net. You will be asked to enter a real e-mail address, land address, and name. I don't recommend entering incorrect data since they will check this information against your credit card information.
  2. Read the rules: Read their 'FAQ' section, and the '20% bonus' section under promotions. You'll see that they provide a 20% bonus up to $200, and will cash it out per the terms discussed above. Note also that wagering in roulette or craps does not qualify for recovering your bonus: blackjack is your best bet and actually yields the best odds if you play ideal strategy.
  3. Download the game: You can play online without the installed program, but it's quite a bit faster and easier to play with the downloaded program. We recommend you install the downloaded program.
  4. Make a deposit: Make a deposit into your account of $1000 (US) to get the maximum 20% bonus. The bonus will show up right away. Until recently, you could use most credit cards to make your deposit, but that it changing these days. If you can't use your credit card, you mail a cheque or use one of many alternative online payment services listed at their web site.
  5. Get the right strategy table: To maximize your earnings, you must play perfect basic strategy. Even if you think you know the right plays, make sure you have a reference table available as you play. We recommend you download and install one of DeepNet Technologies' Blackjack training programs (Blackjack Mentor or Counter) for Palm OS, Windows or Pocket PC. Simply set the preferences for 'DAS, S17', or or use the 'Multi2' action table (although it says 'h17' in the title, there are no strategy differences that we recommend for s17 and h17 in multi-deck blackjack). Or, you can click here to jump to the strategy table below.
  6. Play blackjack: Sign in to play for real money (you can practice with a 'fun' account first, if you want to test yourself). Do not play with other players; play by yourself to avoid any pressure from other people. This is critical: play only 100 rounds of blackjack with exactly $5 bets. Use a piece of paper to record the number of games. Do not play more than 100 hands, even if you are ahead. Do not increase or decrease your wager (see the analysis if you want to see why). After 100 hands at $5, you've wagered 2.5 times your original bonus amount which qualifies you to withdraw your funds.
  7. Play perfect basic strategy: Take your time while you're playing, and check every play in our software or a correct strategy table. Double and split when you should, and note that you can draw cards to split aces. Note also that you are only allowed to split once per hand.
  8. Cash out: Once you've played 100 rounds of blackjack, quit playing. Wait a day, then login again and request a complete cash out. Casino-on-net will send confirmation and the payment (it usually takes 5 days for the initial refund back to your credit card of the initial deposit, then a month or so for them to mail you a cheque for the remainder).

Analysis of the game

The following analysis was done using Blackjack Audit, our statistical blackjack simulation program. We ran hundreds of millions of hands of blackjack to statistical verify these results.

Game expectation

The casino's advantage using the exact rules of Casino On Net is 0.210%. This means that on average, they will earn a minimum 1/5th of 1 percent of every wager made in blackjack. In practice, they earn a much higher amount (2%) since few players actually play perfect strategy. This means that of the $500 in total wagers you make using our method, you should expect to lose no more than $1.05 on average, leaving you with $198.95 profit after the $200 bonus.

Risk of ruin

Of course, blackjack is a game of chance and you are unlikely to see exactly the average outcome! Suppose you asked the following question: If 50,000 people came in and played using this method, what percentage of them would lose more than the $200 deposit? What's the chance on my coming out ahead?

To answer this, we completed a 'Risk of Ruin' analysis in Blackjack Audit. We ran 50,000 blackjack sessions, replicating the exact game conditions with Casino-on-net:

  • Four decks, reshuffled after each round.
  • DAS, S17, hitting split aces allowed, only one split allowed.
  • Flat $5 bets for at most 100 hands.
  • Used only the matching basic strategy.
  • Stopped playing if at anytime we lost $200 or more.

The results are amazing:

  • 99.96% of the sessions ended without losing the $200 (only 19 of the 50,000 sessions lost $200 in 100 rounds). With the $200 bonus, this means you have a 99.9% chance making money with our method.
  • The average earning per session was $198.98 (factoring in the $200 bonus).

Click here if you want to see the analysis report from Blackjack Audit. Below, you can see the probability distribution of your expected earnings using this exact method:

Changing the method

We've already warned you that deviating from our prescribed method is not a good idea! Here's why:

  • What if I play longer? Suppose you decide to play for 200 rounds, instead of 100. The probability of losing goes up to 1.31% from 0.04%! Still low, but you must remember that the casino has an advantage in this game and you cannot win by playing longer.
  • What if I bet more? Suppose you decide to make $10 bets instead of $5 bets. Your risk of losing the $200 bonus goes up to 8.1%! If you play only 50 hands with $10 bets, resulting in the same total wagers, your risk of ruin ends up at 1.30%.

Stick to our prescribed method! It works.

If you have questions about this, please feel free to e-mail us: questions@bjinsider.com. In the interest of being up front and honest, we do indeed get a referral bonus for each customer who creates an account at Casino On Net. Now go make $200 bucks!

Update: Rules Change at Casino-On-Net

A sharp reader recently e-mailed us and noted that Casino-On-Net no longer has the 'rehit split aces option': after splitting a pair of aces, you only get one extra card for each hand. He asked if that changed the outcome of this analysis.

We re-ran the simulations with this rule change. The results were:

  • 99.95% of the sessions ended without losing the $200 (only 26 of the 50,000 sessions lost $200 in 100 rounds). The risk percentage worsened only by 0.01%.
  • The average earnings per session was $197.85. This only decreased by $1.13.

So, the rule change make no significant difference in the results of this study. In effect, the small number of hands relative to the size of bankroll, eliminates any effect caused by the slightly worsened rules.

Correct basic strategy: D8, DAS, S17

This is the correct basic strategy for the game at Casino-on-Net
Hand: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
8 H H H H H H H H H H
9 H D D D D H H H H H
10 D D D D D D D D H H
11 D D D D D D D D D H
12 H H S S S H H H H H
13 S S S S S H H H H H
14 S S S S S H H H H H
15 S S S S S H H H H H
16 S S S S S H H H H H
A2 H H H D D H H H H H
A3 H H H D D H H H H H
A4 H H D D D H H H H H
A5 H H D D D H H H H H
A6 H D D D D H H H H H
A7 S D D D D S S H H H
A8 S S S S S S S S S S
A9 S S S S S S S S S S
AA P P P P P P P P P P
22 P P P P P P H H H H
33 P P P P P P H H H H
44 H H H P P H H H H H
55 D D D D D D D D H H
66 P P P P P H H H H H
77 P P P P P P H H H H
88 P P P P P P P P P P
99 P P P P P S P P S S
TT S S S S S S S S S S

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