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WHY PLAYING MULTIPLE SPOTS IS

DIFFERENT THAN PLAYING ONE SPOT

By Alan Krigman

 

Alan Krigman, and his poetic sidekick Sumner A. Ingmark, have been illuminating the dark recesses of casino gambling for more than a dozen years. Mr. Krigman is especially well known for sharing his insights into the mathematics underlying the various games (including blackjack), the influence of volatility and skewness as well as edge on bankroll during the course of a session, and the impact of betting as well as decision strategies on expected performance. An archive of Mr. Krigman's prose and Mr. Ingmark's muse is online at http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/archives/.

Blackjack buffs who wager on multiple spots experience the game differently from players who bet on single hands. With the same total exposure, the erosive effect of the edge on each round does not change; rather it is the volatility that varies. Technically, volatility is measured by a statistical quantity called "standard deviation." Picture this intuitively as a kind of average by which a bankroll goes up or down as the result of every decision.

Pretend you are flipping coins, heads wins $2, and tails loses $2. With this rule neither you nor your opponent have an edge and your fortune grows or shrinks by $2 per flip. (The standard deviation is $2.) Instead, say you and a partner play separately in the same round, betting $1 each. The same $2 total is up for grabs on every round. One out of the four possible combined outcomes wins $2, one loses $2, and two break even. The average bankroll jump and the standard deviation are now $1. Over time, you will, therefore, normally be ahead or behind by less than you would with the same number of single $2 flips.

The plot thickens when multiple bets are not independent. For example...

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