Q. I believe blackjack analysts sell progressive betting short. Consider a recent scenario I experienced on a $5 minimum / $500 maximum table that progressive betting produced a net win of $2,733, whereas flat betting would only have returned $70.

A. Congratulations on your big win. Betting progressions can produce some spectacular wins far in excess of anything you could do by flat betting the minimum.

But, as you acknowledge, progressive betting cannot change the odds of the game. When you bet with a progression, there will be times that you have your largest bets on the table in negative counts, when the house has its biggest edge.

The spectacular wins require long winning streaks. Those are rare and precious. Far, far, far more common are short sequences such as two wins, a loss, a win, a loss, two wins, and three losses. In those situations, a progression bettor actually does worse than a flat bettor. In the progression you describe, two $5 wins followed by a $10 loss would leave you even for that short sequence, while someone flat betting $5 would have a $5 profit. That happens A LOT.

The spectacular wins are balanced off by the long grind of the short streaks.

Some points to consider:

• If you're an average player facing a 2 percent house edge, then in the long run, you'll lose $20 per $1,000 wagered if you bet flat, and $20 per $1,000 wagered if you use a progression. If you're a basic strategy player facing a half-percent house edge, you'll lose $5 per $1,000 wagered if you bet flat, and $5 per $1,000 wagered if you use a progression.

• If you start a betting progression with $5 bets, you wind up wagering more money than someone with $5 flat bets, and your average session losses will be higher than the $5 flat bettor’s.

• If you don't put a cap on the progression, and just keep increasing your bet until you lose, then you are pretty much guaranteed to lose your largest bet.

I'm not trying to dissuade you from using a progression. They're fun and can lead to some awfully big wins. But in really common circumstances, they can undermine you, too, and in the long run, the house edge remains the same.

Q. Video poker and blackjack are the only casino games I play. I am not an expert, but I believe I'm better than the average or basic strategy player. There's a question I want you to answer. How long is "in the long run?" Whenever I'm dealt a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace up, I take even money. This way, I always win the hand. The object of the game is to try to win every hand. I’ve read that in the long run, this is not a good play. So tell me how long is "the long run." Is it an hour, day, week, month or year? If I'm going to play blackjack an hour or two, I'll always take even money.

A. I disagree that the object in blackjack is to win every hand. That's a philosophy that's doomed to failure. The natural advantage that the casino has because it wins anytime both player and dealer bust means that we're going to lose more hands than we win, no matter what our strategy.

The real object is to maximize wins and minimize losses. One of the ways we maximize wins is to take the 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks and not give the money away on insurance.

Unless you are a card counter, the assumption when the dealer has an Ace up against your blackjack is that there is a 69.2 percent chance the dealer will not have a 10-value card down, and only a 30.8 percent chance that the dealer will have a blackjack. Let's say you're betting $10 a hand, so that the 3-2 payoff on blackjack is $15. When you take even money, settling for a $10 payoff instead of risking a push if the dealer also has blackjack, there's better than a 69 percent chance that you're giving away $5 of your winnings. You don't maximize wins by giving away money.

Taking even money is not just a bad play in the long run, it's a bad play every time you make it. Sometimes it works, just as other bad plays work sometimes. It's still a bad play, one that actually is more costly than some plays basic strategy players would never make, such as standing on 16 vs. 10.

The casino gives 2.3 percent of its natural edge back to us by paying 3-2 on blackjacks. I'm not inclined to give any of that back.

The only reason to take even money is if you're counting cards and know that more than one-third of the remaining cards are 10-values. At that point, insurance swings in your favor, and you should take it regardless of what your own cards are. If you're not counting cards, taking insurance, including even money, is giving money away.