Progressive video poker is a subset of regular video poker. In order to know when it becomes favorable to play a progressive, we must first understand its unadorned brethren. My next article in the BJI, "Under the Covers," will detail aspects unique to progressives. This month I will address non-progressive VP.

I have often mused on the disparity between how important looks are when meeting people, and how little they matter in the process of knowing them. What attracts us does not keep us, and what keeps us does not attract us. Fortunately, when picking video poker machines, one can make judgments based solely on appearance and not have to worry about years of counseling, a messy divorce, and backbreaking spousal payments. Everything you need to know is printed in LARGE friendly letters on the cover, so "Don’t Panic."

It is doubly important, with sugar on top, that you understand the information in this article applies only to areas where law guarantees the randomness of machines, such as in Nevada. In non-regulated areas, it might still be possible to find honest machines, just as I suppose it is possible to meet honest attorneys. I simply wouldn’t bet on it. Learn the local laws, and make sure they are enforced.

How then do we look at the faceplate of a video poker machine and determine its return? We look at the paytable. On a guaranteed random machine with a 52-card deck, the frequency with which we get the various poker hands is a known and predictable quantity; therefore, the ONLY things determining the return of the machine is what cards we hold, and how much we will be paid for our winning hands. We aren’t going into strategy in this article but, assuming you know VP strategy, the only thing that makes a difference to the return of a machine is its paytable. On two identical machines, except for their pays on the full house, one that pays 9 times your bet will have higher return than one that pays 8. No exceptions! No other considerations! More is better. Now for a brief Selah.

Teaching you how to determine a machine’s return will not tell you whether or not it is hot or cold. This is because the former concept exists, whereas the latter two do not. Luck, hot and cold machines, and all other concepts that take into account retrospective results should be consigned to old wives’ tales and given the same credence one gives the admonition that cold water boils faster than hot, and that a watched pot never boils. Put some cold water in a pot and watch it boil if you don’t believe me. The reason two identical machines played identically will have divergent results is because they are random and that’s a good thing. In dealing with random machines, the past does not interest us at all, only the expected future. I have an entire chapter in my book The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives devoted to this topic. If you have any lingering doubts or misunderstandings concerning luck or randomness you might want to read Chapter 2 of my book Perception and How You Look At It. Selah over.

I despise advertisements and articles that are simply trying to get you to buy something, which is why I noted that there are free alternatives to software purchase. What I can tell you for sure is that you are not going to want to determine VP return by hand…it’s about six months of grueling work for a single game type. If you are looking for a handy pocket guide to machine returns, I recommend Jean Scott’s The Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide, with nearly 200 of the most common VP pay schedules. Appendix B of my book contains similar information, but not in such an easy-to-carry format.

Therefore, unless you are an uber-masochistic math geek with a year to kill, that’s it. Read the paytable, look up the return or analyze it with software, and you’re done. This will give you the return of non-progressive VP and the base return for progressive VP. Next month, we’ll cover where to go from there. I leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Babylon 5.