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STICKMAN’S STANCE:

PLAYING THE FIRE BET AT CRAPS

by Jerry "Stickman"

Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker, and advantage slot machine play. Jerry "Stickman’s" new book is "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold’em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker." He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. In addition, Jerry "Stickman" along with his partner, #1 best-selling gaming author, Frank Scoblete give private lessons in dice control. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickmanjerry@aol.com .

The game of craps is unlike any other in the casino. It is the only game that gives the player the means to win (a pair of dice) by allowing him to throw them and attempt to beat the casino. It is an extremely social game where most of the players cheer-on the shooter and win, when the shooter wins. It is a game that has more betting options for the player than any other casino table game. The most common bets are also the lowest house-edge bets – the pass / don’t pass and come / don’t come. Each of these bets has a low 1.4 percent house edge in a random game.

There are place bets with a house edge ranging from 1.5 percent for placing the 6 or 8 to 6.7 percent for placing the 4 or 10.There are also lay bets where you can bet against a number being thrown with a similar range of house edges.

The field bet, which pays if the next number thrown is a 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12, normally has a house edge of 5.56 percent.

There are hard-way bets that pay if a pair of 2’s, 3’s, 4’s, or 5’s is thrown. The house edge varies between 9.09 and 11.11 percent.

The Any Craps and the "Yo" (11) bets have an 11.11 percent house edge and are one roll bets.

There are hop bets which are a bet that a certain set of two numbers will appear on the next roll of the dice. They carry an 11.11 to 13.89 percent house edge.

The Horn bet is a one-roll bet that a 2, 3, 11, or 12 will appear on the next roll of the dice. It has a 12.5 percent house edge.

The Whirl or World bet adds the 7 to a Horn bet and has a 16 percent house edge.

The worst bet on the standard craps table is the Any 7’s bet. It is a one-roll bet that carries a 16.67 percent house edge.

Casinos, being the greedy enterprises that they are, always look for new ways to part their clientele from their money. Along those lines, the Fire Bet was developed. It is not available on most layouts, but it is becoming more common.

The Fire Bet has been available in different venues for a few years now. To make the Fire Bet, the player must bet $1 to $5 (and in some cases $10) before the first roll of a new shooter. This is true even if the new shooter’s first roll is not a point number. To win a fire bet in most casinos, the shooter must set and make at least four different point numbers. Setting and remaking the same point (for example a point of 8) only counts as one point for the fire bet.

The most common pay table – pays 25-for-1 for four different points, 250-for-1 for five different points and 1,000-for-1 for making all six different point numbers. This may sound like a lot of money, but it is rare to collect on the fire bet. The fire bet has a large (make that enormous) house edge. Depending on the pay schedule, it ranges from 20 to 25 percent.

So what are the actual odds of winning the fire bet? Let’s take a look.

• About 59 percent of the time, zero points will be made.
• About 26 percent of the time, only one point will be made.
• About 10 percent of the time, two different points will be made.

Keep in mind that the 26 percent figure is for making one point. It does not include come-out 7’s or 11’s, which are a win for the pass line better. The 26% is for making exactly one point and no more.

Most serious craps players know that the pass line bet carries a 1.41 percent house edge. How do the percentages above square with that 1.41 percent?

There is a 59 percent chance no points will be made. That means there is a 41 percent chance that one or more points will be made. Add to that number the 7’s and 11’s made on come-out, and the 41 percent becomes 49.29 percent. Therefore, you have a 49.49 percent chance of winning a pass line bet. Conversely, you have a 50.70 chance of losing your pass line bet. Subtracting 49.29 from 50.70 gives you 1.41 – the house edge of the pass line bet.

Okay, now back to the Fire Bet. As stated above, about 10 percent of the time a shooter will make exactly two different points. However, in order to collect anything with the Fire Bet, the shooter needs to make twice this number of points and already 95.6 percent of the total results are accounted for. Let’s continue.

• About three and one-third percent of the time, three points will be made – taking us to 98.94 percent of all results.

• Only about 0.88 percent of the time will a shooter make four different points. Looking at it another way, only once in about 113 attempts will a shooter make four different points, and for this accomplishment, Fire Bet participants are paid a whopping 25-for-1.

•Continuing, about 0.16 percent of the time, a shooter will complete five different points. This works out to once in every about 610 attempts that Fire Bet players will win 250-for-1.

•And finally, only about 0.016 percent of the time will a shooter complete all six different points. An event that happens about once every 6,156 times is paid by the casino at a rate of 1,000-for-1. It’s no wonder the casinos love this bet.

Many gamblers and even some advantage players, think it is a fun and okay (maybe even good) bet to make. They could possibly be right. No other bet at the craps table pays such a large return, and if the amount allocated to the Fire Bet is a very small fraction of the total bet spread, the 20 percent house edge may not even be noticed. Heck, I have even been tempted and tossed a dollar or two on the Fire Bet along the way.

If you are considering making this bet, just keep in mind the incredible odds against completing this six-number sequence. In the long run, your bankroll will suffer.

Until next time….

All the best in your casino and life endeavors.

Jerry "Stickman"

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