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THERE IS ALWAYS A BETTER BET, SWINGS, SURRENDER AND MIND MUDDLING – Part 2
By The Babe
‘The Babe’ is a dedicated Blackjack Tournament Competitor. He was attracted to the game at the start of the 80’s and has undoubtedly participated in more major blackjack tournaments than anybody. He has made $800,000 in tournament prize winnings, and has won his way to the televised tables of The Million Dollar II Tournament, the Ultimate Blackjack Tour on CBS, and the new 2007 season of the World Series of Blackjack. He still continues to compete, and has three major titles to his credit in the past two years.
In last month’s article, we determined that there are some occasions, when doubling your bet on the second to the last hand, in order to attain more than a maximum bet lead, is worth risking a lead that will be knocked down to a ½ max bet deficit if the double is lost. Our example was a 7-4 hand vs. the dealer 5 and a bankroll of $76,500 vs. $70,000. BR2 led out with a $10,000 bet and BR1 countered with $14,500. UBT rules apply with a $25,000 maximum and a $500 minimum. We explored the two outcomes of win – win, and lose – lose when doubling, and then did the same for the action of hitting. By choosing one ‘best bet’ for the last hand for each of the different last hand bankrolls, we showed that this double down yielded about a 12% greater chance of winning the round. Now we need to look at some of the other options and outcomes, which may seriously affect the accuracy of this 12% number.
Going back to your $11,000 lead and your 60% advantage bet of $10,500, when you hit the 7-4 hand and have a win – win outcome. What will happen if you bet $20,000 for the last hand, covering the high, while retaining the opportunity to surrender, securing the low? The 60% number comes from betting for the low, a 56% winning percentage, plus allotting 4% for the times you can see your opponent is likely to win, and you double to take the high. How will the $20,000 bet with surrender option compare to the straight low bet? It would be great to have a computer run on this problem, but until you computer dudes get on it, we will have to deal with some mathematical logic.
A $20,000 bet not only covers the high, but if doubled, it beats a BR2 Max bet natural or a double, leaving you with a head swirling amount of options, depending on the cards that fall. Obviously, this bet must be superior to a $10,500 bet, but by how much?...
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